Backlash Over Polymarket ‘Odds’ on Titan Sub Survival

On the Ethereum blockchain, Polymarket is a prediction marketplace where users may purchase and sell "shares" in the outcomes of upcoming events.

Backlash Over Polymarket ‘Odds’ on Titan Sub Survival

As first reported on Thursday, users of Polymarket had staked more than $220,000 on whether or not the sub would be located in time.

On the Ethereum blockchain, Polymarket is a prediction marketplace where users may purchase and sell "shares" in the outcomes of upcoming events. Users can sell their shares for $1 apiece after the market has been settled. About 62% of respondents had a gloomy outlook on the crew's prospects of surviving.

After the viral wave of disgust as word of the market spread on Twitter, Polymarket appeared to lap up the attention, informing users that there was "only a 15% chance the missing submarine is found by Friday." 

“For the purposes of this market, the vessel need not have been rescued or physically recovered to be considered ‘found,’” the market description page stated.

“If pieces are located, but not the cabin which contains the vessel’s passengers, that will not suffice for this market to resolve to ‘Yes.’”

Gizmodo's request for feedback was met with a tone-deaf statement from a site spokesman who said that the market may be of great use to the crew members' families.

“If the families were privy to Polymarket, they could use the market as a way to obtain the real-time, unbiased probability of the submarine being recovered,” Polymarket said in an email.

 “That is a far more valuable service to them than sensationalist media coverage: with our markets, at least they understand the true probabilities.”

Even though there are no particular restrictions against it in countries like the UK where odd proposition and political betting are legal, the regulated betting sector doesn't engage in "death pool" style betting. 

However, unwise betting markets are common. When Barack Obama was elected president in 2009, Irish bookmaker Paddy Power offered chances that he wouldn't serve out his whole first term. It was implied that he may be murdered. Odds were removed by Paddy Power as a result of the negative public reaction.